All in one mobile devices – An addendum

30 Apr 2010|Leigh Marinner

In my blog yesterday, I’ve been told I left it with the impression that Cheskin didn’t have a solution for forecasting change. The point is disruptive change is by definition hard to forecast. Our thoughts about the future of the swiss-army-knife-mobile-phone were given long before the birth of the iPhone, which was the disruptive change.

And our Cheskin blog did predict the decline of simplicity in phone design before the iPhone entered the market.

How do we think about predicting the future in the face of potential disruptive innovation?

First, try to create conditions for disruptive innovation by conceptually removing market constraints and imagining how the market might evolve in their absence. Second, remind ourselves of previous examples of disruptive innovation and think how those might apply to the case in hand. Third, using our consumer insight into what customers want most, come at the question from the other direction and ask what would have to change to enable consumers to have more of what they want, and how likely those changes are. Finally, be clear about when we are giving short-term advice.

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